A Quicker MVP Voting Method: Seasons 65 + 66

 While I still believe that comparing Wins Above Replacement totals for the guys on the ballot is the most accurate and fair way to vote, doing that math can take a while. Therefore, I'd like to use something quicker (at least to start) when real life is busy, and I don't have time to do all that math. Enter the MVP Prediction System. It seems like it should be pretty reliable, and with the discussions around the real-life AL and NL MVP awards for this season heating up I want to take a few minutes to see who the Prediction System says should win this year. If I like the answer(s) it gives me, I may use it in Stickball (and my other HBD worlds) going forward. Let's get to it: 

2024 MLB AL MVP

• Leading the league in RBI = 1 pt : Aaron Judge 
• Leading the league in AVG = 1 pt : Bobby Witt
• Leading the league in HR = 1 pt : Aaron Judge
• 100+ RBI = 1 pt each: Aaron Judge, Jose Ramirez
• .300+ AVG = 1 pt each: Bobby Witt, Aaron Judge, Vlad Jr, Yordan Alvarez, Steven Kwan, Yanier Diaz

Based on those criteria, the standings are as follows:

1. Aaron Judge: 4 points
2. Bobby Witt: 2 points
3. Jose Ramirez, Vlad Jr, Yordan Alvarez, Steven Kwan, Yanier Diaz: 1 point

Points are also awarded for playing for a division winner (as of this writing that would be NYY, CLE, HOU.) Factoring in that bonus, the standings become:

1. Aaron Judge: 5 points
2. Bobby Witt, Jose Ramirez, Yordan Alvarez, Steven Kwan, Yanier Diaz: 2 points
3. Vlad Jr: 1 point

The final factor is if you play C, 2B, SS or CF on one of the division winners. Factoring in that bonus, we arrive at our final standings: 

1. Aaron Judge: 6 points 
2. Yanier Diaz: 3 points
3. Bobby Witt, Jose Ramirez, Yordan Alvarez, Steven Kwan: 2 points 
4. Vlad Jr: 1 point 

2024 MLB NL MVP

• Leading the league in RBI = 1 pt: Marcell Ozuna & Shohei Ohtani are tied
• Leading the league in AVG = 1 pt: Marcell Ozuna 
• Leading the league in HR = 1 pt: Shohei Ohtani 
• 100+ RBI = 1 pt each: none currently 
• .300+ AVG = 1 pt each: Marcell Ozuna, Luis Arraez

 That makes the initial standings: Marcell Ozuna 2.5 points, Shohei Ohtani 1.5 points, Luis Arraez 1 point. 

The current NL division leaders are PHI, MIL and LAD. That bumps Shohei up to 2.5 points to tie Ozuna for the lead. Since he's just DH'ing this year and not pitching, he doesn't get the positional bump either. That makes our final standings: 

1. Marcell Ozuna & Shohei Ohtani 2.5 points
2. Luis Arraez 1 point 

The linked BP article above says "if there's more than one candidate, sum their AVG, RBI's and HR and add a bonus (1 pt) for {C, 2B, SS, CF} and a bonus (1 pt) for playing for a divisions winner." 

• Ozuna: .307 AVG, 37 HR, 94 RBI at DH for ATL (no bonuses) = 131.307 points 
• Ohtani: .294 AVG, 41 HR, 94 RBI at DH for LAD (division bonus) = 136.294 points

Both of those predictions feel good, so now out of curiosity I'm going to compare this method to the WAR totals in Stickball to see if it makes a difference.

Stickball Season 65 AL MVP

• Leading the league in RBI = Dan Brown 
• Leading the league in AVG = Alex Calvo 
• Leading the league in HR = Vince Fonville 
• 100+ RBI = Dan Brown, Alex Calvo, Dennis Morgan, Vince Fonville, Eric Nola, Ted Touissaint, Wayne Teixeira, Gregorio Ontiveros, Harry Machi, Furio Betemit, Denny Kawasaki, Woody DeLuca, Parker Shelby, Damian Reed, John Rosenbaum, Danys Uribe, Darron Munson, Willie Espinosa, Daniel Wolcott
• .300+ AVG = Alex Calvo, Woody DeLuca, Koji Kim, Vince Lara, Emilio Jose, Gus Meng, David Beltre, Phil O'Shea, Rafael Jacquez, Vince Fonville

The AL Division winners this year were OTT, BUR, MTY and SF. After factoring in that and the positional bonuses associated with that, Here's the list of players who scored multiple points: 

1. Alex Calvo & Vince Fonville: 4 points
2. Dan Brown & David Beltre: 3 points
3. Emilio Jose, Woody DeLuca, Harry Machi, Damian Reed: 2 points

Calvo wins the tiebreaker over Fonville 187.342 to 179.301; Calvo also won the WAR total but by a much wider margin. Looking at the five guys on the ballot this season, let's see how the stack up using this scoring system: 

• Alex Calvo: 4 points
• Dan Brown: 3 points 
• Rafael Jacquez: 1 point 
• Brian Kojima: 0 points
• Vince Fonville: 4 points

The good news is that the WIS finalists are also the top two guys when you do it out the long way and, therefore, correctly identify the winner. The bad news is that guys like David Beltre get overlooked sometimes. 

Stickball Season 65 NL MVP

I follow the same process as with the AL MVP. The division winners were CLE, SJU, ELP and LV and I find the following players have multiple points by the end: 

1. Tim Martin, Niko Morton : 4 points
2. Hub Cooper, Del Lopez, Emil Vazquez, Joe Lange, Eugene Lee, Francisco Chavez, Guilder Gabriel, Isaac Holland : 3 points 
3. Cliff Leverton, D'Angelo Machado, Lorenzo Moreno, Oswaldo Cerveza, Claudio Jarvis, Ernest McPherson, Preston Cooney, Jorge Pena, Bob Haywood, Alex Manuel, Ivan Jacquez : 2 points 

Martin wins the tiebreaker over Morton 147.339 to 143.342 without even being nominated by WIS. Here's how the five guys who were nominated stack up: 

• Ivan Jacquez:  2 points 
• Cliff Leverton: 1 point (WAR winner...by quite a bit) 
• Bob Haywood: 2 points
• Claudio Jarvis: 2 points 
• Niko Morton: 4 points 

There'a fair bit of disagreement between WAR and this method for the NL MVP, and I like the WAR results better personally, but in a pinch this does seem like a good method to use. 

Stickball Season 66 AL MVP

It looks like I never hit "publish" on this post at the end of last season, so I'll just add another section to this already fairly lengthy post...and this time around it's Thanksgiving week so I don't have a ton of time and will use the method just for the five candidates. Here's how it shakes out: 

• Leading the league in RBI: Alex Calvo 
• Leading the league in AVG: Niko Morton (NL)
• Leading the league in HR: Alex Calvo
• 100+ RBI = Alex Calvo, Carlos Romero, Dan Brown, Ron Harris
• .300+ AVG = Alex Calvo, Carlos Romero, Dan Brown, Ron Harris
• Played for Div Winner: Carlos Romero, Ron Harris
• Playing C, 2B, CF or SS on Div. Winner: none

That gives us the final tally of:

• Alex Calvo = 4 points
• Carlos Romero & Ron Harris = 3 points
• Dan Brown = 2 points
• Rio Florimon = 0 points

Stickball Season 66 NL MVP

Repeating the same process as above provides the following results in the NL:

• Leading the league in RBI: Alex Calvo (AL)
• Leading the league in AVG: Niko Morton 
• Leading the league in HR: Alex Calvo (AL)
• 100+ RBI: Niko Morton, Pedro Trinidad, Henderson Moriarty, Ivan Jacquez, Jon Browne
• .300+ AVG: Niko Morton, Pedro Trinidad
• Played for Div. Winner: Pedro Trinidad, Ivan Jacquez, Jon Browne
• Played C,2B,CF or SS on Div Winner: none

That gives us a final tally of: 

• Niko Morton, Pedro Trinidad = 3 points
• Morton 161.362, Trinidad 132.323
• Ivan Jacquez, Jon Browne = 2 points
• Henderson Moriarty = 1 point