Stick’s HBD Field Manual

Safe Defaults, Why They Work, and When to Break Them — Season 73 Edition

Updated August 2026 by mr_stickball

Hardball Dynasty is too deep to reduce to one magic formula. I tried that in earlier versions of this page. Much of the old advice came from hard-earned experience and still holds up, but some of it was too absolute: too many fixed ratings thresholds, too much faith in traditional batting-order theory, and too little emphasis on player development, roster rules, park effects, and uncertainty.

This edition is a field manual rather than a set of commandments. For each subject I try to give you three things:

A safe default — a sound place to begin when you do not yet have a better reason.
Why it works — the baseball or HBD logic behind it.
When to break it — because the right answer depends on your roster, ballpark, competitive window, budget, and world.

The single most important idea is this:

Every move should serve both the team you have now and the franchise that somebody must operate later. Winning matters. So does preserving the organization.

That “somebody later” may still be you. I hope it is.

Quick-start checklist for a new owner

Before you make a trade, waive a player, set a budget, or promote a prospect, do these things:

Review every player’s current ratings, age, salary, contract, options, 40-man status, Rule 5 status, and level.
Look at both the major-league roster and the organizational depth chart.
Identify the players who are genuine long-term assets.
Identify the veterans who have value now but little or no remaining development.
Learn your home ballpark effects.
Check future payroll commitments before adding salary.
Ask two experienced, trustworthy owners to review any major trade.
Do not confuse the excitement of activity with improvement.

My revised first-season trading rule

My old advice was simply: do not trade during your first season. That remains a very safe default, but it is more rigid than necessary.

Here is the better rule:

Do not make an irreversible trade until you can explain the value, risk, contract status, roster consequences, and developmental effect of every important player involved. Then get two independent opinions.

You do not need to remain frozen while a fair opportunity disappears. You do need to avoid trading a future star because another owner understands your roster better than you do.

1. Build a franchise plan before you build a budget

There is no universally correct budget. A budget is an expression of strategy.

The first question is not, “How much should I spend on college scouting?” It is, “How is this franchise going to acquire talent over the next three to five seasons?”

Common approaches include:

College-draft emphasis: heavier college scouting, a dependable prospect payroll, and strong training.
High-school upside: heavier high-school scouting, patience, strong coaching, and a longer development horizon.
International emphasis: serious international scouting plus enough prospect payroll to win bids.
Veteran contender: more player payroll and medical support, with less dependence on uncertain projections.
Balanced pipeline: meaningful investment in more than one acquisition channel, accepting that none will be maximized.

Safe budgeting defaults

Protect enough player payroll to field a real major-league roster.
Fund prospect payroll for the draft class you expect to sign. The official HBD guide suggests roughly $6 million as a useful baseline; I generally prefer a little cushion when the draft position or demands warrant it.
Keep training strong when you have meaningful young talent. Training affects the value of the entire organization, not one player.
Hire coaches who can actually develop the players assigned to them.
Carry enough medical budget to reduce the damage caused by injuries, especially on an older or expensive roster.
Spend on the scouting channels you genuinely intend to use.

Budget transfers after the fact are painful: HBD applies a 50-percent penalty. Plan carefully before locking things in.

When zero in a scouting category makes sense

I have successfully used zero international scouting and, in some worlds, zero advance scouting. Those are viable strategies—not universal recommendations.

Zero international scouting can make sense if you do not plan to compete seriously for international prospects. Zero advance scouting can make sense if you are comfortable evaluating established players from current ratings and accepting much more uncertainty about projections.

The tradeoff matters: current ratings are the values being fed into the simulation engine, while the accuracy of projected ratings is tied to advance scouting. If your advance budget is low, do not treat a precise-looking projection as precise information.

When to break the default

Spend differently when your franchise demands it. A rebuilding team with three elite young players may gain more from training and coaching than from one additional veteran. A championship roster with an aging core may need payroll and medical spending now. An owner who is genuinely skilled in the international market should not copy my zero-international approach simply because it worked for me.

2. Understand what the ratings do—and what they do not tell you

The overall rating is convenient. It is not player value.

A player’s value depends upon:

the ratings that matter for his role;
his position and defensive burden;
his age and remaining development;
his durability and health;
his contract and roster status;
his platoon strengths and weaknesses;
your ballpark;
the alternatives already in your organization.

A 72-rated shortstop, a 72-rated first baseman, and a 72-rated relief pitcher are not interchangeable assets.

Current ratings

Current ratings describe what a player can do now and are the ratings used by the simulation. Begin there.

Projected ratings

Projected ratings estimate a player’s potential peak. Their accuracy depends upon advance scouting, and the distance between current and projected ratings is not a promise of future development.

Age 27 is the standard point at which HBD stops displaying a meaningful gap between current and projected ratings, but players have individual peak ages. Some continue improving later, particularly pitchers.

Statistics

Statistics tell you what happened under a particular combination of ratings, opponents, parks, sample size, usage, and luck. They are evidence—not a second ratings system and not a perfect forecast.

My preferred order of operations is:

Current ratings establish the player’s underlying skill.
Last season’s meaningful sample provides a performance baseline.
Current-season results update that baseline gradually.
Platoon splits, park, defense, role, and development provide context.

Do not bench a talented 23-year-old because he went 7-for-50. Do not declare that an aging veteran has been reborn because he hit .360 for three weeks. Small samples are useful observations, but poor foundations for large decisions.

3. Player development is not a side project

Player development may be the most important franchise-building function in HBD. The official guide identifies several influences, including playing time, coaching, training, makeup, injuries, age appropriateness for the level, and setbacks associated with demotion.

That means development cannot be reduced to “put the prospect on a roster and wait.”

Safe developmental defaults

Place the player at an age-appropriate and ability-appropriate level.
Give legitimate prospects regular playing time or innings.
Employ competent coaches at the levels where your best prospects play.
Keep training strong when development is central to the plan.
Avoid unnecessary demotions.
Protect players from chronic fatigue and reckless usage.
Review development throughout the season rather than only at rollover.

Run a monthly development audit

For every meaningful prospect, track:

Question	What to review
Is he playing enough?	PA, innings, starts, role, fatigue
Is the level appropriate?	Age, current ability, performance, organizational depth
Is he still improving?	Development Report and ratings movement
Is coaching helping?	Relevant coach ratings and role
Is his path blocked?	Players ahead of him, options, 40-man status
What is the next decision?	Promotion, continued reps, role change, protection, trade

Development versus winning now

This is not always a conflict. A young player who is already close to the veteran alternative may deserve the job because the plate appearances have future value. If the veteran is only marginally better, the prospect often creates more total franchise value by playing.

The calculation changes during a pennant race or postseason series. It also changes when a prospect is plainly overmatched. The point is to make the tradeoff deliberately.

A warning about “Show Recs”

The game’s recommendations are useful, but the official help expressly notes that they are designed to help win the game and do not take player development into consideration. If a player needs at-bats, innings, or exposure at a secondary position, you must manage that yourself.

4. Evaluate hitters by profiles, not by one minimum threshold

My old “Minimum-To-Be-Darned-Good” rule looked for roughly 65 or better across the important batting ratings. That is still a handy screening device. It is not a law.

The principal offensive ratings describe different ways of creating value:

Contact: ability to put the ball in play and avoid strikeouts.
Power: ability to produce extra-base damage, especially home runs.
Batting versus LHP/RHP: effectiveness against that side of pitching.
Batting Eye: strike-zone judgment and ability to reach base by walk.

A player can be very valuable without being balanced.

Common successful hitter profiles

The complete hitter
Strong contact, power, splits, and eye. These players are rare and expensive.

The power-and-eye hitter
May have only average contact or splits, but combines damage with walks. This profile can produce excellent overall offense.

The contact-and-split hitter
Limited power but puts the ball in play and handles pitching from one or both sides. Useful at demanding defensive positions or near the top of the order if the on-base results support it.

The platoon weapon
Dominant against one side and weak against the other. This player can be more valuable than his overall rating suggests if you protect him from bad matchups.

The glove-first regular
Below-average offense may be acceptable at catcher, shortstop, or center field when the defense is truly valuable. The same bat is much harder to carry at first base, left field, right field, or DH.

Durability, speed, and baserunning

Durability determines how much rest a player needs; it should be evaluated against the role you expect him to fill. A part-time platoon player does not need everyday durability. A star expected to start 150 games does.

Speed and baserunning have real value, but they do not rescue an otherwise poor hitter. Stealing more bases is only helpful when the success rate and managerial settings create positive value. Use fast players intelligently rather than merely aggressively.

5. Defense matters—and positional context matters more

The same defensive ratings mean different things at different positions. Use the position-assignment recommendations as a starting point, then compare the player with major-league averages shown by the game.

Safe defensive priorities

Catcher: pitch calling, arm strength, and arm accuracy matter; the acceptable offensive sacrifice depends upon how much defensive value you are actually receiving.
Shortstop: range, glove, arm strength, and accuracy all matter. This is not the place to hide a bat-first infielder without understanding the cost.
Center field: range is central. A true center fielder can protect the corners and convert balls that lesser defenders never reach.
Third base: arm and reaction-related fielding ability matter; do not assume every computer-recommended third baseman is a shortstop.
Second base: range and glove remain important even though the arm demand is lower.
Corner outfield and first base: the defensive threshold is lower, which means the offensive threshold should generally be higher.

Third basemen, shortstops, and second basemen should throw right-handed. The game’s recommendations normally reflect that baseball reality.

Catcher pitch calling: important, not magical

Pitch calling helps or hurts a pitching staff over time, but HBD’s FAQ describes the effect as meaningful rather than drastic because pitchers can call their own games. Do not ignore a catcher’s pitch calling. Do not assume a great signal-caller can turn a bad staff into an ace staff either.

A strong offensive catcher with middling pitch calling may still be the correct starter. A weak hitter with elite pitch calling may be useful with selected pitchers, as a late-game replacement, or as part of a catching tandem.

6. Evaluate pitchers as complete run-prevention packages

Pitcher evaluation begins with the interaction among:

Control
Effectiveness versus left-handed batters
Effectiveness versus right-handed batters
Pitch quality
Stamina, durability, and health
Velocity and groundball tendency
Role, defense, catcher, and park

My older numerical thresholds remain useful as warning lights, but they should not be treated as gates. A pitcher with ordinary control may succeed with excellent splits and pitches. A pitcher with excellent control can still be hit hard if everything else is mediocre.

Stamina and durability are different tools

Stamina helps determine how long a pitcher can perform in an appearance.
Durability helps determine how quickly he recovers and how often he can be used.

I used to rely heavily on a “Durability plus Stamina” total. It is a handy shorthand but not a universal equation. An 85-stamina/17-durability starter and a 70-stamina/32-durability starter may both work, but they require different rotation spacing, pitch limits, and bullpen support.

Judge the whole usage pattern:

How many pitches can he throw effectively?
How quickly does he recover?
How many starts or appearances do you need?
How deep is the bullpen?
Is the rotation four, five, or six pitchers?

Pitch quality

Do not import the real-life rule that every starter must possess four credible pitches. HBD evaluates the ratings it gives you. A pitcher with two outstanding pitches and a usable third may outperform a nominal five-pitch pitcher whose offerings are all ordinary.

As a safe default, look for:

at least one genuinely strong pitch;
another pitch that hitters must respect;
no collection of unusable offerings overwhelming the profile;
control and splits sufficient to let the pitches play.

Velocity and groundballs

Velocity contributes to strikeouts and can help a pitcher escape contact. Groundballs can suppress damaging airborne contact and interact favorably with certain parks and defenses. Neither rating should be evaluated alone.

An extreme flyball pitcher may be more attractive in a home park that suppresses home runs. A groundball staff becomes more attractive when supported by a strong infield defense.

7. Construct the staff by workload and leverage

Twelve pitchers is a sound default. Eleven can work with durable starters and relievers. Thirteen can make sense for a deep bullpen, fragile rotation, or heavy in-season workload. There is no sacred roster split.

A practical staff structure

Four to six starting pitchers, usually five during the regular season.
One or two long-relief/swing options.
Several middle and setup relievers with enough durability to remain available.
At least two relievers you trust in high-leverage innings.
A closer if the roster has one—but the best reliever need not be imprisoned in save-only situations.

I still strongly prefer durable bullpen arms. A talented reliever provides no value from the fatigue list. The correct number of high-durability relievers depends upon how deep your starters work and how aggressively your manager goes to the pen.

Lefties, righties, and paradox pitchers

Two left-handed relievers is a useful default, but handedness alone does not make a pitcher good. What matters is effectiveness against the hitters he will face.

A “paradox” pitcher—one whose opposite-side split is unusually strong—can create useful matchup advantages and frustrate conventional platoon construction. The same is true for paradox hitters.

Build the staff around actual split ratings, not a quota.

Rotation quality

An ace and a credible second starter remain enormously valuable. They stop losing streaks, carry playoff innings, and reduce the burden on the bullpen. The back of the rotation can be built more economically, particularly when the bullpen is strong and the schedule occasionally skips the fifth spot.

8. Use pitching recommendations as a baseline, not an opponent

My old method automatically added five pitches to the computer recommendation and increased the Call Bullpen setting for most starters. That worked for some of my staffs, but it is too universal for a general guide.

The better process is:

Use Show Recs to establish a baseline.
Check whether roles, rotation size, and relief assignments are correct.
Save reasonable settings.
Monitor fatigue, box scores, pitch totals, rest patterns, and bullpen availability.
Adjust one variable at a time when the evidence warrants it.

HBD’s recommended pitch settings already account for current fatigue, durability, health, role, and the role distribution on the roster. That makes them a useful starting point.

What the settings mean

TPC — Target Pitch Count: where the pitcher generally attempts to finish his outing.
MPC — Maximum Pitch Count: the hard ceiling; keep it at or above TPC.
Call Bullpen: patience before TPC is reached, from 1 (patient) to 5 (quick hook).
Auto Rest: the pregame fatigue threshold below which the player is normally rested.

Safe defaults

Give important starters and closers enough rest to avoid chronic fatigue.
Use a quicker hook for volatile or weaker pitchers than for aces.
Do not give a low-stamina reliever a workload he cannot recover from.
Make sure the mop-up and long-relief roles can absorb bad starts without destroying the setup corps.
Review the inactive/fatigue picture before every series when the staff is under stress.

When to break the default

Increase pitch counts when a pitcher repeatedly finishes strong and recovers comfortably. Reduce them when fatigue accumulates, health is poor, the postseason is approaching, or the bullpen structure makes a different workload preferable. In a short playoff series, you may use fewer starters and more aggressively deploy your best relievers.

9. The active roster is a coverage system

The ideal roster is not always 14 hitters and 11 pitchers. The right split depends on the durability of your regulars, the presence or absence of the DH, bullpen workload, schedule, and positional flexibility.

Safe roster constructions

13 hitters / 12 pitchers: the most balanced default.
14 hitters / 11 pitchers: useful with a durable staff, active platoons, or extensive pinch-hitting.
12 hitters / 13 pitchers: useful when pitching workload is the immediate concern and the position-player bench is versatile.

Build a coverage matrix

Before finalizing the roster, make certain you have:

a second playable catcher;
coverage at shortstop and second base;
someone capable of handling center field;
a credible first-base/corner option;
at least one useful bat against each side of pitching;
a late-game defensive option where needed;
a pinch-runner if the roster can support one.

One versatile player may solve three coverage problems and free a roster spot for a specialist.

Bench usage

The bench is not merely a collection of inferior starters. It is a set of tools:

a platoon bat;
a defensive replacement;
a pinch-runner;
a backup catcher;
a utility defender;
a developmental player whose usage must be planned.

Matchup chess remains real, but do not save every weapon for a moment that never arrives. Use the best available substitute when the expected gain is meaningful and preserve enough positional coverage to finish the game.

10. Learn the roster rules before they learn you

Before moving any player, review Status Info.

Pay attention to:

options remaining;
years on the 40-man roster;
major-league service;
contract length and future salary;
waiver exposure;
Rule 5 eligibility or current Rule 5 status.

Rule 5 players

A selected Rule 5 player must remain on the big-league roster or go through the offer-back process. If acquired by trade or waiver claim, the new club also inherits the Rule 5 obligation and has a limited period to assign him to the majors.

That makes a Rule 5 selection a roster decision, not a free prospect. Before drafting one, decide:

Can he survive on the major-league roster all season?
Can I give him enough playing time to preserve his value?
What roster spot and role am I sacrificing?
Is his upside worth the inflexibility?

Forty-man discipline

Protect real assets, not every recognizable name. Every marginal player added to the 40-man roster consumes future flexibility. Conversely, losing a genuine prospect because you failed to review eligibility is an avoidable franchise error.

Conduct a 40-man audit before the Rule 5 freeze and again before major roster moves.

11. Build lineups around run creation, not baseball folklore

I used to recommend a traditional sequence: a walker first, a contact/bunt/advancement hitter second, the best hitter third, and a cleanup hitter providing “protection.” I no longer think that is the best general advice.

A single is not wasted in the leadoff spot. Productive outs are still outs. Lineup protection is much less important than giving your best hitters more plate appearances.

Safe modern batting-order default

Put your three best hitters in the #1, #2, and #4 spots.
Give the first two spots to players with strong on-base ability.
Use power as an important tiebreaker for #4 and #5.
Put the next-best hitters in #3 and #5.
From #6 through #9, generally proceed in descending offensive quality.

This is a default, not a difference-maker on the scale of acquiring better players. Do not obsess over moving two nearly equal hitters one spot while ignoring a weak roster position.

Separate lineups versus lefties and righties

Use the applicable split rating and meaningful performance splits. A hitter’s overall line may conceal a serious platoon weakness. Switch hitters bat opposite the pitcher, but their left- and right-side effectiveness can still differ through their split ratings.

Development belongs in the lineup decision

If a 23-year-old and a 35-year-old project to be nearly equal against a right-handed pitcher, the young player’s plate appearances may have additional franchise value. That does not mean prospects play regardless of ability. It means a marginal present-tense advantage should not automatically block meaningful development.

Sample-size discipline

Use the previous full season to stabilize early-season judgments. Let current ratings remain central. Treat current results as a gradually growing update.

As a practical rule:

40–60 plate appearances can identify something worth watching.
They rarely prove that a player’s established ability has fundamentally changed.
A full season provides much stronger evidence, but even that must be interpreted through age, ratings, park, and role.

12. Use wOBA—or a good approximation—to compare hitters

OPS is useful, but it treats one point of on-base percentage as equal to one point of slugging percentage. Reaching base is more valuable than that construction implies. Weighted On-Base Average, or wOBA, assigns different run values to walks, singles, doubles, triples, and home runs, then expresses the result on a scale similar to OBP.

For HBD analysis across different run environments, FanGraphs’ static Basic wOBA formula is convenient:

Basic wOBA = [0.70 × (BB + HBP) + 0.90 × 1B + 1.25 × 2B + 1.60 × 3B + 2.00 × HR] ÷ PA

If singles are not listed, calculate them as:

1B = H − 2B − 3B − HR

Do not invent a “reached on error” value. It is not part of this Basic wOBA formula.

Interpret wOBA within your world

The familiar real-baseball rules of thumb—roughly .320 average, .340 above average, .370 great, and .400 excellent—are useful orientation points. HBD worlds can have different run environments. Calculate the league’s Basic wOBA and compare players with that baseline.

wOBA is also not park-adjusted. A hitter in an extreme hitter’s park may have an inflated result; a hitter in a severe pitcher’s park may be better than the raw number appears.

Stick’s quick ratings-based offensive estimate

When the statistical sample is small, I use a deliberately simple estimate against each pitcher hand:

Skill Score = 0.25 × Contact + 0.25 × Power + 0.30 × applicable Split + 0.20 × Eye

Then:

Estimated wOBA = league Basic wOBA + 0.0025 × (Skill Score − 65)

This is not an official HBD simulation formula. It is a sorting tool—a way to translate current hitting ratings into a common scale while giving the applicable platoon split slightly more weight. Treat differences smaller than about .005 as ties and differences smaller than about .015 with caution.

For the best working forecast, blend:

current ratings;
last season’s Basic wOBA or slash line;
current-season performance, weighted by sample size;
handedness;
park;
age and development.

That is much more useful than choosing a lineup from batting average or RBI totals.

13. Build for your ballpark—but do not become trapped by it

Ballpark effects influence the style and performance of both teams. The displayed values from −4 to +4 are best treated as relative indicators, not exact equations.

Examples

A park that suppresses home runs can make flyball pitchers safer and may reduce the value of marginal power.
A park that inflates home runs to one field can favor hitters whose handedness and pull tendencies exploit that field.
A park that increases doubles or triples can reward gap power, speed, and outfield defense.
A spacious park increases the value of range in center field and the corners.
A groundball staff benefits from strong infield defense regardless of the outfield dimensions.

The park affects the opponent too. You are not trying merely to create pretty home statistics; you are trying to build a roster whose relative strengths gain more from the environment than the opponent’s do.

When to break the park-fit rule

Talent travels. Do not pass on a genuine star because his profile is not perfectly tailored to the home park. Park fit is most useful as a tiebreaker among similar players and when constructing the supporting roster.

14. Trade from understanding, not from urgency

Before accepting a significant trade, answer these questions:

What does each player contribute now?
What realistic development remains?
How reliable are the projections at my advance-scouting level?
What are the contracts, options, 40-man consequences, and Rule 5 implications?
Am I filling a real organizational need or merely changing names?
Does the deal fit my competitive window?
What would the players cost to replace in free agency or the draft?
Have two trustworthy owners reviewed it independently?

Do not evaluate a trade solely by adding overall ratings. Do not allow a current losing streak to redefine the long-term value of your best young player. Do not assume that every prospect reaches his projection.

A fair trade can help both franchises because their needs, timelines, parks, payrolls, and depth are different.

15. Review the franchise on a schedule

Good HBD management is a cycle of observation and adjustment.

Every few series

Check fatigue and inactive players.
Make certain roles and hierarchies still work.
Watch whether one reliever is absorbing too much usage.
Verify that developmental players are actually playing.

Every 30–40 games

Compare team batting, pitching, and defense with league averages.
Review results versus left- and right-handed opponents.
Compare home and road performance in light of park effects.
Review the Development Report.
Recalculate approximate wOBA or another context-neutral offensive measure.
Look for roster bottlenecks and promotion opportunities.

Near the trade deadline

Decide honestly whether the team is a contender.
Protect the future from a desperate attempt to save a mediocre season.
If contending, target specific marginal wins rather than famous names.
If selling, value controllable talent, roster flexibility, and realistic development.

Before the postseason

Reassess rotation size and pitching workloads.
Put the best relievers in roles that maximize meaningful innings.
Build the bench for short-series matchups.
Reduce developmental experiments when the championship stakes justify it.

16. When should you break the safe defaults?

Break them when you can identify the reason and the expected benefit.

Good reasons include:

an elite prospect needs major-league development;
a player has an extreme and reliable platoon split;
the ballpark changes the relative value of two similar players;
a short playoff series changes the optimal pitching workload;
roster rules make a normally inferior choice necessary;
your organization has unusual depth at one position and scarcity at another;
your world’s run environment differs materially from the generic baseline;
the evidence from ratings, meaningful statistics, and usage all points in the same direction.

“I have always done it this way” is not a reason. Neither is “the last three games annoyed me.”

Final thoughts

The best HBD owners are not the ones who memorize the largest number of thresholds. They are the ones who understand uncertainty, protect franchise value, develop players deliberately, and make adjustments for context.

Use the recommendations. Then inspect them.

Use the ratings. Then place them in context.

Use the statistics. Then respect the sample size.

Use other owners’ advice. Then make the decision your franchise actually requires.

Most of all, be patient. HBD rewards thoughtful work over many seasons. The thrill of “doing something” lasts a moment. A well-built franchise can remain enjoyable for years.

Good luck!

—Stick 👴👍

References and further reading

This guide combines official game documentation, general baseball analysis, and my own HBD experience. Where I offer a numerical shortcut or personal strategy, treat it as a decision aid rather than a disclosed simulation-engine formula.