An Update on HOF Calculations/Metrics

 As I mentioned at the end of my previous blog post about the HOF, I am in the middle of calculating park adjusted Wins Above Replacement totals for a number of the leading candidates because I find that makes comparing careers faster and easier (once the numbers are crunched.) This past season I used the following scale as my initial judge of HOF worthiness: 100+ WAR = Slam Dunk HOF Candidate, 70-99 WAR = Definitely HOF Worthy, 50-69 WAR = Strong HOF Case and 49 or fewer WAR is a Weak HOF Case.  

However, I am going to make a couple of tweaks to that particular system going forward: first of all, I am going to add a category at the bottom ("No HOF Case At All") so that I might save myself some time in the future and only make deep dives on guys with a legitimate chance at the HOF. The other change that I'm going to make is that I'm going to start using a metric that MLB.com made up to rate the best free agent signings of all time...in the article they published where they introduce it they call it "a junk stat" that is "hastily thrown together and somewhat arbitrary" but I like it a lot. The reason I like it a lot is that it combines the two aspects of professional sports that are usually debated as being the most important into one metric: winning titles & individual performances (aka stat-stuffing.) 

In case you didn't click the link above and read what they wrote, here's how they combine those two aspects rather quickly and efficiently: The "Baseline Score" is a player's average WAR/year and then they get bonus points for World Series Rings, Pennants won, Cy Youngs, MVPs and each year they produced at an "All Star Level" (which they define as 4+ WAR.) 

The last piece of the puzzle is turning my previous scale into a scale that makes more sense with this metric. Since my previous scale was based on MLB totals, and MLB players have to play at least 10 seasons to be HOF eligible, this is where my mind goes right off the bat, as it were: 

100 WAR over 10 seasons = 10.0 WAR/year = Slam Dunk HOF Candidate

70 WAR over 10 seasons = 7.0 WAR/year = Definitely HOF Worthy

50 WAR over 10 seasons = 5.0 WAR/year = Strong HOF Case

and this is where the new category comes in:

30 WAR over 10 seasons = 3.0 WAR/year = Weak HOF Case

29 or fewer WAR over 10 seasons = 2.9 WAR/year or less = No HOF Case At All

So my thought is that starting next season, I'll look at players who averaged 3.0 WAR/year or better and see where their various awards get them on the scale presented in italics above.