Monday, December 23, 2024

My 2025 MLB Hall of Fame Ballot

 Since I have been using the "Importance Score" metric to evaluate the Stickball HOF for the past handful of seasons, I figured doing the same thing to the MLB HOF ballot would provide a good litmus test for how effective this made up metric actually is. As a reminder (or introduction) I calculate Importance Score using WAR/year and giving bonus points for MVP's, Cy Young Awards and World Series Rings. Generally speaking, any score in the double digits is something that I consider to be HOF worthy. Here's how this year's ballot looks:


Since MLB Hall voters are allowed 10 votes rather than just the five in HBD, my ballot for this year would be the following: 

1) Andy Pettitte
2) Dustin Pedroia
3) Ian Kinsler
4) Carlos Beltran
5) Mark Buehrle
6) CC Sabathia
7) Ben Zobrist
8) Jimmy Rollins
9) Felix Hernandez
10) Bobby Abreu

I have previously stated that I'd stay away from confirmed steriod users, so that along with the LONG list of worthy candidates on this year's ballot is why I started counting my votes at Pettitte rather than including A-Rod and Manny. That being said, if/when a Hardball player puts up those kinds of numbers I'd vote for them in a split second. It also tells me that the Importance Score (and the HOF cutoff being a double digit score) is just about right because the no-brainers end up clearly at the top and the guys that I often hear debates about (Tulo, Abreu, David Wright) are right in the middle with some just above and some just below the 10.0 cutoff. 


Friday, November 29, 2024

A Quicker MVP Voting Method: Seasons 65 + 66

 While I still believe that comparing Wins Above Replacement totals for the guys on the ballot is the most accurate and fair way to vote, doing that math can take a while. Therefore, I'd like to use something quicker (at least to start) when real life is busy, and I don't have time to do all that math. Enter the MVP Prediction System. It seems like it should be pretty reliable, and with the discussions around the real-life AL and NL MVP awards for this season heating up I want to take a few minutes to see who the Prediction System says should win this year. If I like the answer(s) it gives me, I may use it in Stickball (and my other HBD worlds) going forward. Let's get to it: 

2024 MLB AL MVP

  • Leading the league in RBI = 1 pt : Aaron Judge 
  • Leading the league in AVG = 1 pt : Bobby Witt
  • Leading the league in HR = 1 pt : Aaron Judge
  • 100+ RBI = 1 pt each: Aaron Judge, Jose Ramirez
  • .300+ AVG = 1 pt each: Bobby Witt, Aaron Judge, Vlad Jr, Yordan Alvarez, Steven Kwan, Yanier Diaz
Based on those criteria, the standings are as follows:
  1. Aaron Judge: 4 points
  2. Bobby Witt: 2 points
  3. Jose Ramirez, Vlad Jr, Yordan Alvarez, Steven Kwan, Yanier Diaz: 1 point
Points are also awarded for playing for a division winner (as of this writing that would be NYY, CLE, HOU.) Factoring in that bonus, the standings become:
  1. Aaron Judge: 5 points
  2. Bobby Witt, Jose Ramirez, Yordan Alvarez, Steven Kwan, Yanier Diaz: 2 points
  3. Vlad Jr: 1 point
The final factor is if you play C, 2B, SS or CF on one of the division winners. Factoring in that bonus, we arrive at our final standings: 
  1. Aaron Judge: 6 points 
  2. Yanier Diaz: 3 points
  3. Bobby Witt, Jose Ramirez, Yordan Alvarez, Steven Kwan: 2 points 
  4. Vlad Jr: 1 point 
2024 MLB NL MVP
  • Leading the league in RBI = 1 pt: Marcell Ozuna & Shohei Ohtani are tied
  • Leading the league in AVG = 1 pt: Marcell Ozuna 
  • Leading the league in HR = 1 pt: Shohei Ohtani 
  • 100+ RBI = 1 pt each: none currently 
  • .300+ AVG = 1 pt each: Marcell Ozuna, Luis Arraez
 That makes the initial standings: Marcell Ozuna 2.5 points, Shohei Ohtani 1.5 points, Luis Arraez 1 point. 

The current NL division leaders are PHI, MIL and LAD. That bumps Shohei up to 2.5 points to tie Ozuna for the lead. Since he's just DH'ing this year and not pitching, he doesn't get the positional bump either. That makes our final standings: 
  1. Marcell Ozuna & Shohei Ohtani 2.5 points
  2. Luis Arraez 1 point 
The linked BP article above says "if there's more than one candidate, sum their AVG, RBI's and HR and add a bonus (1 pt) for {C, 2B, SS, CF} and a bonus (1 pt) for playing for a divisions winner." 
  • Ozuna: .307 AVG, 37 HR, 94 RBI at DH for ATL (no bonuses) = 131.307 points 
  • Ohtani: .294 AVG, 41 HR, 94 RBI at DH for LAD (division bonus) = 136.294 points
Both of those predictions feel good, so now out of curiosity I'm going to compare this method to the WAR totals in Stickball to see if it makes a difference.

Stickball Season 65 AL MVP
  • Leading the league in RBI = Dan Brown 
  • Leading the league in AVG = Alex Calvo 
  • Leading the league in HR = Vince Fonville 
  • 100+ RBI = Dan Brown, Alex Calvo, Dennis Morgan, Vince Fonville, Eric Nola, Ted Touissaint, Wayne Teixeira, Gregorio Ontiveros, Harry Machi, Furio Betemit, Denny Kawasaki, Woody DeLuca, Parker Shelby, Damian Reed, John Rosenbaum, Danys Uribe, Darron Munson, Willie Espinosa, Daniel Wolcott
  • .300+ AVG = Alex Calvo, Woody DeLuca, Koji Kim, Vince Lara, Emilio Jose, Gus Meng, David Beltre, Phil O'Shea, Rafael Jacquez, Vince Fonville
The AL Division winners this year were OTT, BUR, MTY and SF. After factoring in that and the positional bonuses associated with that, Here's the list of players who scored multiple points: 
  1. Alex Calvo & Vince Fonville: 4 points
  2. Dan Brown & David Beltre: 3 points
  3. Emilio Jose, Woody DeLuca, Harry Machi, Damian Reed: 2 points
Calvo wins the tiebreaker over Fonville 187.342 to 179.301; Calvo also won the WAR total but by a much wider margin. Looking at the five guys on the ballot this season, let's see how the stack up using this scoring system: 
  • Alex Calvo: 4 points
  • Dan Brown: 3 points 
  • Rafael Jacquez: 1 point 
  • Brian Kojima: 0 points
  • Vince Fonville: 4 points
The good news is that the WIS finalists are also the top two guys when you do it out the long way and, therefore, correctly identify the winner. The bad news is that guys like David Beltre get overlooked sometimes. 

Stickball Season 65 NL MVP

I follow the same process as with the AL MVP. The division winners were CLE, SJU, ELP and LV and I find the following players have multiple points by the end: 
  1. Tim Martin, Niko Morton : 4 points
  2. Hub Cooper, Del Lopez, Emil Vazquez, Joe Lange, Eugene Lee, Francisco Chavez, Guilder Gabriel, Isaac Holland : 3 points 
  3. Cliff Leverton, D'Angelo Machado, Lorenzo Moreno, Oswaldo Cerveza, Claudio Jarvis, Ernest McPherson, Preston Cooney, Jorge Pena, Bob Haywood, Alex Manuel, Ivan Jacquez : 2 points 
Martin wins the tiebreaker over Morton 147.339 to 143.342 without even being nominated by WIS. Here's how the five guys who were nominated stack up: 
  • Ivan Jacquez:  2 points 
  • Cliff Leverton: 1 point (WAR winner...by quite a bit) 
  • Bob Haywood: 2 points
  • Claudio Jarvis: 2 points 
  • Niko Morton: 4 points 
There'a fair bit of disagreement between WAR and this method for the NL MVP, and I like the WAR results better personally, but in a pinch this does seem like a good method to use. 

Stickball Season 66 AL MVP
It looks like I never hit "publish" on this post at the end of last season, so I'll just add another section to this already fairly lengthy post...and this time around it's Thanksgiving week so I don't have a ton of time and will use the method just for the five candidates. Here's how it shakes out: 
  • Leading the league in RBI: Alex Calvo 
  • Leading the league in AVG: Niko Morton (NL)
  • Leading the league in HR: Alex Calvo
  • 100+ RBI = Alex Calvo, Carlos Romero, Dan Brown, Ron Harris
  • .300+ AVG = Alex Calvo, Carlos Romero, Dan Brown, Ron Harris
  • Played for Div Winner: Carlos Romero, Ron Harris
  • Playing C, 2B, CF or SS on Div. Winner: none
That gives us the final tally of:
  • Alex Calvo = 4 points
  • Carlos Romero & Ron Harris = 3 points
  • Dan Brown = 2 points
  • Rio Florimon = 0 points
Stickball Season 66 NL MVP
Repeating the same process as above provides the following results in the NL:
  • Leading the league in RBI: Alex Calvo (AL)
  • Leading the league in AVG: Niko Morton 
  • Leading the league in HR: Alex Calvo (AL)
  • 100+ RBI: Niko Morton, Pedro Trinidad, Henderson Moriarty, Ivan Jacquez, Jon Browne
  • .300+ AVG: Niko Morton, Pedro Trinidad
  • Played for Div. Winner: Pedro Trinidad, Ivan Jacquez, Jon Browne
  • Played C,2B,CF or SS on Div Winner: none
That gives us a final tally of: 
  • Niko Morton, Pedro Trinidad = 3 points
    • Morton 161.362, Trinidad 132.323
  • Ivan Jacquez, Jon Browne = 2 points
  • Henderson Moriarty = 1 point


Saturday, September 28, 2024

Meet Your Hall of Famers: Slim Stewart


Bio:   Slim Stewart was born in Mendenhall, MS (Pop. 2,504, 33 miles Southeast of Jackson).  He attended Lawrence County High School in Monticello, MS (Nickname: Cougars). 

Draft: Was the 3rd pick in Season 40 by Little Rock (tenaciousdx).   Signed for $3,8200,000 million.

Scout Pasqual Javier: “Slim Stewart is an exceptionally talented pitcher with a high ceiling. His combination of velocity, control, and competitive mindset makes him a standout prospect. While there is still development needed, particularly with his secondary pitches and consistency, his raw talent and work ethic suggest a bright future ahead. With the right development and support, he has the potential to become a top-of-the-rotation starter at the major league level.  Projection: Future All-Star caliber pitcher with potential to be a key contributor to a major league rotation. With continued growth and refinement, he could emerge as an ace for any team.”

Manager (trapapoodle): “He stayed slim by doing ballroom dancing in his spare time. He was also very superstitious. Other than that I just remember he was a great pitcher and an even better man.  He was just a consistently excellent pitcher for me and I'm still working on replacing him.”    

Career Earnings: $121,131,000

Career: Slim Stewart broke into the Majors in season 42 and had a 20-year career.  He spent his first 18 years in the Little Rock organization that drafted him (New Orleans, Wichita, Charleston).  He finished his MLB career with one-year stints in Boise and El Paso.  He was a 9-time All-Star and won one World Series Ring with Charleston in Season 54.  He also threw a no-hitter in Season 58. The Season of 54 was also his best year. In that year he had a 19-4 record while throwing 212 INN. He also posted a 2.04 ERA, .205 OAV, .93 WHIP, and 184 K’s.  He finished his career with 260 Wins, 3166 K’s, a .228 OAV, 1.10 WHIP, and 2.98 ERA.  He owns the single season record for WHIP of .90 for Charleston in Season 58. He also owns Career records in Charleston for Wins 258, WHIP 1.08, K’s 3,073, INN 3589, ERA 2.88, OAV .226.

Hall of Fame SpeechLadies and gentlemen,

To be inducted into the Hall of Fame is a profound honor, one that reflects not just my journey but the countless people who have supported me along the way. As I look out at all of you, I am overwhelmed with gratitude and awe. This recognition is a testament to the incredible game of baseball and to the remarkable journey I’ve had, from a small-town kid with big dreams to a Hall of Famer.

As I look back on my career, I am reminded of the humble beginnings in Mendenhall, Mississippi. Growing up, I was just a kid with a dream and a fastball, playing on the backlot fields and dreaming of making it to the big leagues. To think that a small-town kid like me could come this far is nothing short of extraordinary.

Getting drafted straight out of high school by Little Rock was the start of an incredible adventure. I remember the excitement and nerves of stepping into professional baseball, not knowing where the road would lead but eager to give it everything I had. Little Rock gave me the chance to start my journey, and I am forever grateful for that opportunity.

Eighteen seasons with Charleston—the team that became my second family—were the highlight of my career. To win a World Series in Season 54 was a moment of sheer joy and validation. That championship was not just a testament to my hard work but to the collective effort of an amazing team. To my teammates and coaches, thank you for your unwavering support, guidance, and the countless memories we created together.

I’ll never forget the day I threw that no-hitter. It was one of those rare and magical moments where everything seemed to fall perfectly into place. But even more than that, it was a testament to the teamwork and preparation that went into every game.

To my family, thank you for your endless support and sacrifices. Your belief in me kept me grounded and motivated through the highs and lows of my career. Your love and encouragement made every victory sweeter and every challenge more manageable.

To the fans of Charleston and beyond, your enthusiasm and loyalty were a driving force for me. Your cheers and support turned every game into a celebration and gave me the energy to perform at my best. I am honored to have been part of this community and to have shared so many great moments with you all.

Baseball is a game of countless stories and countless dreams. I hope my story serves as a reminder of the power of perseverance, dedication, and passion. To be remembered in this way is both humbling and inspiring, and I am deeply grateful for this recognition.

Thank you for this incredible honor. It’s a privilege to stand here and celebrate the game that has given me so much. Here’s to the future, to the next generation of players who will carry on the legacy of this great sport.

Thank you all.

Sunday, August 25, 2024

Season 65 Awards Voting

 Just as a reminder, the following are Wins Above Replacement totals that include batting, fielding and pitching data and have been adjusted for both home parks and primary defensive positions. Without further ado, let's get to the numbers and see if the #Cliff4MVP campaign is justified 😂🤔

AL MVP

  • Alex Calvo (LF-Monterrey), 9.57 WAR
  • Dan Brown (RF-Monterrey), 5.46 WAR
  • Rafael Jacquez (2B-Fargo), 6.09 WAR
  • Brian Kojima (1B-Santa Cruz), 3.89 WAR
  • Vince Fonville (RF-Ottawa), 5.59 WAR
NL MVP 
  • Ivan Jacquez (1B-St. Louis), 7.63 WAR
  • Cliff Leverton (1B-Las Vegas), 9.87 WAR
  • Claudio Jarvis (1B-Charleston), 7.10 WAR
  • Niko Morton (1B-El Paso), 7.31 WAR
  • Bob Haywood (1B-Santa Fe), 3.97 WAR
AL Cy Young
  • AJ Moreno (SP-Fargo), 7.59 WAR
  • Juan Romero (SP-Louisville), 3.59 WAR
  • Brad Jensen (SP-Monterrey), 5.07 WAR
  • Wladimir Campos (SP-Ottawa), 3.80 WAR
  • Warren Buckel (SP-Kansas City), 4.78 WAR
NL Cy Young 
  • Tom Scott (SP-Helena), 4.94 WAR
  • Shaggy Conforto (SP-Cleveland), 4.85 WAR
  • Felipe Lee (SP-San Juan), 5.72 WAR
  • Mitchell Bergman (SP-San Juan), 3.19 WAR
  • Germany Gilliam (SP-Las Vegas), 1.66 WAR
AL Rookie of the Year
  • David Beltre (CF-San Francisco), 4.58 WAR
  • Brian Kojima (1B-Santa Cruz), 3.89 WAR
  • Koji Kim (CF-Kansas City), 4.31 WAR
  • Dan Leach (RF-Santa Cruz), 1.60 WAR 
  • Stretch Stockton (CF-Colorado), 1.61 WAR
NL Rookie of the Year
  • Hong-Gu Martin (RF-Charleston), 3.77 WAR
  • Germany Gilliam (SP-Las Vegas), 1.66 WAR
  • Timothy Gray (RP-Seattle), 2.27 WAR
  • John Browne (LF-Helena), 2.45 WAR
  • Charles Siddall (SP-El Paso), 1.85 WAR

Saturday, August 17, 2024

Meet Your Hall of Famers: Leonys Nieves

 


Bio:   Leonys was born in Satsuma, FL (unincoporated community in Putnam County, 55 miles East of Gainesville).  He attended Crescent City High School (Nickname: Raiders). He then played at Davidson Collage in Davidson, NC (nickname: Wildcats)

Draft: Was the 2nd pick in Season 43 by Richmond (vegascowboy).   Signed for $3,910,000 million.

Scout Pep Dickey- “Leonys Nieves is a highly promising prospect with great power. His potential impact at the major league level is significant, with the upside of becoming a key contributor offensively. With continued development and adjustment to higher competition, he has the potential to become a cornerstone player for any organization. Projection: Future All-Star and middle-of-the-order hitter.”

Career Earnings: $55,729,000

Career: Leonys Nieves broke into the Majors in season 46 and had a 14-year career.  He spent 10 of those 14 years in the Richmond organization that drafted him (Florida, Augusta, Dover, Cleveland, Jacksonville) before being traded to Santa Fe for 3 seasons. He finished his MLB career with one season in Louisville.  He was a 6-time All-Star and won 2 MVP awards (51, 53), and 7 Silver Slugger Awards (47, 49, 50, 51, 52, 53, 55).  His best year was his MVP Season of 53. In that year he hit .340 with 216 H, 33 2B, 2 3B, 52 HR, 128 RBI, and 5 SB.  Over his career he hit .308, 2209 H, 374 2B, 31 3B, 494 HR, 1401 RBI, 67 SB and an OPS of .966. 

He holds the Single Season record for Richmond at 57 Homeruns (Season 48).

Hall of Fame Speech:  Ladies and gentlemen, family, friends, and fellow baseball lovers,

Wow. Standing here tonight, I’m overwhelmed with gratitude and humility. It’s truly an honor to be inducted into the Hall of Fame, a place where the legends of our game are celebrated, and I’m deeply touched to be counted among them.

When I reflect on my career, I can’t help but think of where it all began. Getting drafted by Richmond was a dream come true. Those early years with the organization shaped me not just as a player, but as a person. Spending a decade with Richmond was like growing up in the game; it was a time of learning, of building my craft, and forging lifelong relationships. The support and belief the organization showed me during those formative years were invaluable. To the Richmond fans and everyone involved with the team, your faith and encouragement laid the foundation for everything that followed.

To my teammates, coaches, and mentors: your support, guidance, and belief in me made all the difference. I owe so much to those who stood by me, pushed me, and celebrated with me through every high and low. The memories we made together will forever be cherished.

To the fans who filled the stands, cheered us on, and shared in the excitement of the game: your passion and enthusiasm are what made every moment on the field special. You inspired me to give my best every time I put on that uniform. The energy you brought to the ballpark was a driving force that kept me going, and for that, I am deeply grateful.

And to my family—my rock and my foundation—thank you for your unwavering support and love. Your belief in me kept me grounded and motivated, and I’m so thankful for every sacrifice you made so I could pursue this dream.

Baseball is more than just a game. It’s a part of who we are, a reflection of our perseverance, and a celebration of our triumphs. To be remembered in this way is both humbling and inspiring. I hope that my journey, my dedication, and my love for the game serve as a reminder that with passion and hard work, we can achieve incredible things.

Thank you for this incredible honor. I’m deeply touched and will cherish this moment for the rest of my life. Here’s to the game that gave me everything, and to the future generations who will continue to make it great.

Thank you all.


Meet Your Hall of Famers: Diego Trinidad

 

Bio:   Diego was born in Barranquilla, CO (Pop. 1,206,319) (located in the northern part of Columbia on the Caribbean Sea).  

International Signing: Signed for $18 million in Season 38 (2nd most that year) by Fargo (thebigdogs)

Scout Ben Wilson: “Diego Trinidad, an 18-year-old outfielder, stands out with his impressive blend of power and athleticism. His smooth, compact swing and advanced hitting mechanics suggest high potential for both average and power. Trinidad’s raw power is evident in his ability to drive the ball deep, and his above-average speed makes him a threat on the basepaths. Defensively, he combines a strong arm with good range, making him a reliable option in the outfield. With a strong work ethic and baseball IQ, Trinidad is poised to develop into a future star.”

Manager (thebigdogs): “Diego was by no means my best player, but he was very clutch.  I was surprised what I got out of him.  I thought he was good but not great.  He turned out to be great and was key piece to the start of the Fargo dynasty in Seasons 45-50.”    

Career Earnings: $83,437,000

Career: Diego Trinidad was signed as an international free agent in Season 38 for $18 million by Fargo (thebigdogs). He broke into the Majors in season 41 and had a 14 year career.  He spent 10 of those 14 years in Fargo before playing with Toronto (1 season), Ottawa (1 season), and Albuquerque (2 seasons).  He was an 5-time All-Star and won 2 MVP awards (43,47), 1 Silver Slugger (43) and has 3 World Series Rings (47,48,49).  His best year was his MVP Season of 43. In that year he hit .321 with 214 H, 36 2B, 2 3B, 46 HR, 136 RBI, and 26 SB.  Over his career he hit .297, 2388 H, 441 2B, 47 3B, 428 HR, 1533 RBI and 288 SB. 

Hall of Fame Speech: Ladies and gentlemen, distinguished guests, and esteemed members of the Hall of Fame,

It is with immense joy and profound gratitude that I stand before you today. To be inducted into the Hall of Fame is a dream realized, a pinnacle of a journey that began many years ago in the lively streets of Barranquilla, Colombia. I am deeply honored to be here, reflecting on a career that has been more than I could have ever imagined.

Growing up in Barranquilla, baseball was more than a game; it was a way of life. From the moment I picked up a bat, I was hooked. The dusty fields and makeshift teams taught me the fundamentals of the game and, more importantly, the values of hard work and perseverance. Little did I know then that those humble beginnings would lead me here, to this incredible moment.

My journey took me from Barranquilla to the cold, bustling streets of Fargo, where I spent ten unforgettable years. Fargo was where I learned what it meant to be part of a team, where I developed my skills and began to make a name for myself. To my teammates in Fargo, your camaraderie and support were the foundation of my success. We celebrated together, fought through tough times together, and those memories will always hold a special place in my heart. Winning three World Series rings with Fargo was a dream come true, a culmination of years of hard work and dedication.

After Fargo, my career led me to Toronto, where I had the privilege of playing for one year. That season was a whirlwind, a chance to showcase what I had learned and to experience the game at a new level. To the fans and the team in Toronto, thank you for welcoming me with open arms and for giving me the opportunity to contribute to the team’s success.

Ottawa was another chapter, though brief, it was filled with its own unique experiences. The time spent there was a testament to the unpredictable nature of baseball, a reminder that every moment, every game, is precious and fleeting.

Finally, my career brought me to Albuquerque for two more remarkable years. Albuquerque was a place where I was able to embrace the game with a renewed energy and passion. The support from the fans and the incredible team spirit made those years some of the most rewarding of my career.

Throughout my career, I was fortunate to earn two MVP awards and to play in some of the most thrilling games of my life. These accolades are not just personal achievements but reflections of the support and dedication of everyone around me. I owe this recognition to my coaches, my teammates, and, most importantly, to my family.

To my family in Barranquilla and beyond, your love and belief in me were the driving forces behind every swing, every pitch, and every play. Your sacrifices and support made this journey possible, and I share this honor with you.

To the fans, your unwavering support has been a source of strength and motivation. Your cheers, your passion, and your loyalty are what made every game special. I played for you as much as I played for myself, and I hope I brought you the joy and excitement that you brought me.

As I reflect on this incredible journey, I am filled with gratitude. Being inducted into the Hall of Fame is not just the culmination of a career but a celebration of the love for the game and the people who make it all possible.

Thank you to the Hall of Fame committee for this extraordinary honor. It is a testament to the game we all love and the incredible journey that baseball has taken me on. Here’s to the dreams that drive us, the teams that support us, and the fans that inspire us.

Thank you all, from the bottom of my heart.


Wednesday, July 10, 2024

Estimated Career WAR: Stickball HOF Edition

 My last few posts have detailed how I calculate Estimated Career WAR, and this post will focus more on the results than the process. As of this morning, I have an Estimated Career WAR total for each member of the Stickball HOF, so now it's time to break those down a bit...partly for fun and partly to help the HOF Committee evaluate candidates.  Before we do a super deep dive, the full results without commentary can be seen below (HOF members are highlighted in gold). In my next post, I'll look at the HOF in more depth with a position-by-position breakdown and maybe another metric or two.