An Update on HOF Calculations/Metrics

 As I mentioned at the end of my previous blog post about the HOF, I am in the middle of calculating park adjusted Wins Above Replacement totals for a number of the leading candidates because I find that makes comparing careers faster and easier (once the numbers are crunched.) This past season I used the following scale as my initial judge of HOF worthiness: 100+ WAR = Slam Dunk HOF Candidate, 70-99 WAR = Definitely HOF Worthy, 50-69 WAR = Strong HOF Case and 49 or fewer WAR is a Weak HOF Case.  

However, I am going to make a couple of tweaks to that particular system going forward: first of all, I am going to add a category at the bottom ("No HOF Case At All") so that I might save myself some time in the future and only make deep dives on guys with a legitimate chance at the HOF. The other change that I'm going to make is that I'm going to start using a metric that MLB.com made up to rate the best free agent signings of all time...in the article they published where they introduce it they call it "a junk stat" that is "hastily thrown together and somewhat arbitrary" but I like it a lot. The reason I like it a lot is that it combines the two aspects of professional sports that are usually debated as being the most important into one metric: winning titles & individual performances (aka stat-stuffing.) 

In case you didn't click the link above and read what they wrote, here's how they combine those two aspects rather quickly and efficiently: The "Baseline Score" is a player's average WAR/year and then they get bonus points for World Series Rings, Pennants won, Cy Youngs, MVPs and each year they produced at an "All Star Level" (which they define as 4+ WAR.) 

The last piece of the puzzle is turning my previous scale into a scale that makes more sense with this metric. Since my previous scale was based on MLB totals, and MLB players have to play at least 10 seasons to be HOF eligible, this is where my mind goes right off the bat, as it were: 

100 WAR over 10 seasons = 10.0 WAR/year = Slam Dunk HOF Candidate

70 WAR over 10 seasons = 7.0 WAR/year = Definitely HOF Worthy

50 WAR over 10 seasons = 5.0 WAR/year = Strong HOF Case

and this is where the new category comes in:

30 WAR over 10 seasons = 3.0 WAR/year = Weak HOF Case

29 or fewer WAR over 10 seasons = 2.9 WAR/year or less = No HOF Case At All

So my thought is that starting next season, I'll look at players who averaged 3.0 WAR/year or better and see where their various awards get them on the scale presented in italics above. 

Meet Your Hall of Famers: Carl Harvey

 

Bio:   Carl Harvey was born in Winona Lake, IN (Pop. 4,908, 50 miles South of South Bend, IN).  He attended James Whitcomb Riley High School (Nickname: Wildcats) where he was a 2-sport athlete (Football and Baseball).  At Riley, Carl led the football team to back-to-back playoff appearances as QB.  He was also a 2-time baseball All-State pitcher and holds the AAAA (biggest classification) State Tournament record of 16 k’s in a playoff game (7 inning game).

Draft: Was the 2^nd pick in Season 26 by New York (brentcnb).  

Scout Paul McKnight- “Carl has a live arm.  He tops out at 96 mph with his Split FB toping out at 88.  His mechanics can be cleaned up to help with control and add more velocity.”

Career: Harvey was drafted in Season 26 by New York and broke into the Majors in Season 30.  During his career he played for New York/Indianapolis, Pittsburg, and Huntington/San Antonio.  During his time, he was a 6-time All-Star and won a Gold Glove Award (32). His best season was Season 38 when he won 15 games, had a .198 OAV, 1.00 WHIP, and 2.37 ERA, while striking out 221.  Over his Career he accumulated stats of 183 Wins, 2804.2 Innings, 2684 K’s, .234 OVA, 1.21 Whip and 3.20 ERA. 

Speech Highlight- “Ever since I started playing baseball, I knew it was all I wanted to do.  I was blessed with ability to be able to do it.  This award is for all those that took a chance on me.”

WHAT DO YOU VALUE AS AN OWNER?

by Mr_Stickball

We all value different things in our teams, but one thing I have always put value in is NP/PA (number of pitches seen per plate appearance).  On the other side of the ball, I at least try to put emphasis on strong defense up the middle.  The main idea here is to attempt to put stress on your opponent's Starter by stretching out each out as much as possible, while lessoning stress on your own Starter by gaining some extra outs with good defense.

In Season 23, Ripken0713's  San Antonio Papaya (Today's San Antonio Rustlers) attained Stickball World's Best NP/PA of 3.76.  AND they were very strong up the middle.

That Papaya team, which won 102 games and the WS Title, had some real stars on it's roster.  Anchoring the lineup were two future HOF'ers: 

1. Playing Left Field, the truly amazing Will Stevenson (.302|.391|.570, with 42 HRs and 110 RBIs); and, 
2. Catcher/DH, Bruce Sandberg (.296|.360|.587), with 39 HRs, 97 RBIs, and a career high ERA Against of only 3.42.  He happened to make the All Star Team and win the Home Run Derby that season as icing on the cake.

Adding to that duo, although not HOF Inductees, the S23 Papaya offense featured some other incredible All-Star talent:

• Playing a flawless 1B, Miguel Andujar hit (.292|.385|.588) with 43 HRs and 113 RBIs and made the All-Star team;
• Playing Center Field, Harry Sanchez, who was nearing the end of his amazing Gold Glove laden career, managed to hit (.271|.337|.406) and although declining, fielded well; 
• Despite his weak bat -- which makes the team NP/PA record even more impressive -- playing a quite rangy (RF 5.33) Shortstop and truly shoring up the defense was the then quite young Philip Jackson.  Jackson managed to win a Gold Glove that season; and, 
• Shoring up the middle infield defense at Second Base was a platoon of veteran Alton Howard (3 time All Star who, while declining, still managed a RF of 4.81) and then rookie, Hack Brown (who played a decent 2B despite his inexperience, and managed to draw a lot of walks with his good batting eye).  Considering Brown played a defensive position, he finished that season with a NP/PA of a not-too-shabby 3.71.

And that combination of a high NP/PA (which tires out the opponent's starter) and strong defense up the middle, with some very good pitching to be fair, led to one of the more impressive teams in the World's History.

It's worth noting that in Season 26 Ripkin won another WS title with a similar formula. He still had Bruce Sandberg (C), Miguel Andujar (1B), and for half of the season had the then-aging Will Stevenson (LF), but by then Phillip Jackson  (SS) was an All-Star as well as a GG winner, and Ripken had managed to actually improve at CF with the Silver Slugger and All-Star, Morgan Venafro. 

In all, we lost a great owner when Ripken hung it up, but I think his formula for success was quite sound.  

As of this posting, Redsox666666's Chicago Charge is on pace to tie the World record, with Mr_Stickball's Colorado Stickballers nipping at the record with a close-but-no-cigar NP/PA of 3.75.  Can either of these squads dethrone Ripken's S23 SA Papaya?  And do these metrics really matter very much in your opinion?  What do you value most as a GM/Manager?

   The New Jersey Gaming Commission has posted the odds for the up coming Stickball 56 season.

Seattle               2-1                             Hartford   3-1

Washington       4-1                             Santa Fe  6-1

Jackson             8-1                             Burlington 17-2 

  Louisville        21-2                            Charleston  21-2 

  Boston          10-1                              Chicago (NL)    11-1                                                                                                                 

Chicago(AL)    11-1                            Toronto    11-1 

  Pawtucket        12-1                          Las Vegas   12-1

San Francisco  12-1                            Detroit     12-1

 El Paso  23-2                                     Colorado  Springs     25-2

Honolulu  25-2                                    Houston   13-1

St. Louis 29-2                                     San Juan    16-1

Jacksonville 31-2                               Santa Cruz  31-2

Ottawa 33-2                                        Colorado   33-2

New York (AL) 35-2                           San Antonio   35-2

Vancouver  35-2                                  Boise  37-2 

 New Your Metro  50-1                      Fargo   60-1

Season 56 Hall of Fame Review

 First and foremost, I want to say thank you for having me and letting me help with both the HOF Committee and the blog...those are the things that made me really excited to join this world and it has certainly lived up to the hype so far! 

Now that introductions are out of the way, I want to take a few minutes to review the HOF process and explain a little more about the Wins Above Replacement metric that I brought to the discussion this season. There are two WAR metrics that I typically use: one is a rough estimate that only takes a few minutes to calculate (and is position adjusted for position players) and the other one takes significantly longer but is also park adjusted for both hitters and pitchers. 

However, I also knew that unlike my other leagues where I'm pretty much a one-person HOF Committee, there were other people here who were much better qualified to speak to the HOF worthiness of the various candidates. My metrics are mainly intended to be a starting point for discussions rather than providing a list of people who should be voted for and overruling the Committee decisions. Keeping this in mind I stayed with the estimated WAR totals for this year and let the rest of the Committee know the scale that I typically use, which is the following: 100+ WAR = Slam Dunk HOF Candidate, 70-99 WAR = Definitely HOF Worthy, 50-69 WAR = Strong HOF Case and 49 or fewer WAR is a Weak HOF Case. 

At the suggestion of the Committee, I started by evaluating those players who were nearing the end of their HOF eligibility and we went from there. As of right now, here are all of the Estimated WAR totals that I have calculated along with a quick description of their HOF worthiness and an MLB comparison where I could find one: 

                            (Note: Those highlighted players have been elected to the HOF)

These numbers did get all three of our suggested locks (Lofton, Saenez & Carl Harvey) elected, but as I mentioned before I find the park adjusted totals to be a much better judge of a player's candidacy. Additionally, I'd like to get to the point where we can say things like "the average HOF player at this position had a career WAR total of X, and this candidate had Y career WAR so they do/don't deserve to be elected", so my plan going forward is to evaluate the three who were elected this year plus the next five vote totals who fell short this season using the more in depth method to see how things go. 

In short, I want to have park-adjusted totals calculated for the following players by next HOF voting season: John Lofton (elected this year), Fautino Saenez (elected this year), Carl Harvey (elected this year), John Servais (8 votes short), Willis Tanner (8 votes short), Darren Harvey (9 votes short), Gabriel McKain (11 votes short & highly debated) and finally Roosevelt Curtis (12 votes short.) 

Meet Your Hall of Famer: Chuck Brewer

Bio:   Chuck Brewer was born in La Porte City, IA (Pop. 2.284, 20 minutes Southeast of Waterloo, IA).  He attended Union Senior High School (Nickname: Knights) where he was a 3-sport athlete (Football, Basketball and Baseball).  At 6-6 he was an All-Stater in all three sports.  In baseball is known for going 15 for 15 in their State Tournament run. Still an Iowa record for consecutive State Tournament hits.

Draft: Was the 12^th pick in Season 31 by Colorado (mr_stickball).  

Scout Rex Brantley- “In classic small-town lore, I stopped to eat in a café in Ames (2 hours away), and this group of 4 older gentlemen was talking about this high school baseball player that was the best hitter they ever saw.  I finally caught the name Brewer and told them I was a scout and, on my way, to see him.  One of the guys said “sign him up, he is Hall of Fame caliber already.”  That’s when I knew he was something special.”

Manger (mr_stickball)- "He stayed with the franchise through thick and thin, even during the dreadful Portland days, for two full decades.  Easy player to get to re-sign. Managed to play an "okay" 1B despite his ratings never being close to what you'd call "non-DH". His pithing efforts were hilarious, but on the other side of the ball he was "Mr. Clutch". He leads the franchise with a total of 717 RBIs with two outs! He spanned the time between some of the world's all-time greatest hitters during his career.  He filled the stands after nobody thought we'd see as exciting of a player as Jose Johnson, and was a major influence on today's Colorado "big draw", Marty Sisler. 

Career: Brewer was drafted in Season 31 by Colorado and broke into the Majors in Season 33 for 44 games, where he hit .364.  He played his entire 22 year in the Colorado/Portland organization.  During his time, he was a 3-time All-Star and won a Silver Slugger Award (44). He also won a World Series Ring in Season 34.  His best season was Season 35 when he hit .350, 1.031 OPS, 101 R, 39 2B, 33 HR, 153 RBI and stole 6 bases.  He did not have any huge seasons, but had 17 very solid seasons to accumulate career stats of .311 Ave, .899 OPS, 1595 R, 3059 H, 465 2B, 44 3B, 425 HR, 1829 RBI, and 26 SB.  He still holds the Colorado/Portland career records for 2B (465), hits (3059), runs (1595), rbi (1829) and walks (1490).

Speech Highlight- “My goal in baseball was always to entertain people.  I loved this game and wanted other to enjoy me playing it.  I give mr_stickball and the entire Colorado/Portland organization for the opportunity to do that. ”

 Another Saturday night drinking with the scouts at the Barleymoe

Tonight Elijah Craig is joined by Hiram Walker, Johnny Walker, and Jack Daniels

Elijah: Well fellas we are about to start random free agency. What are your thoughts about the coming season.

Johnny: Too much money is paid to too many players.

Hiram: Johnny, now is not the time to be frugal, or as the Ontario natives say scottish.

Johnny:Are you slurring my ethnic background, my clan?

Hiram: You know I'm not Canadian. I was born in Massachusetts. I got my first scouting job from kcg67  with the Boston Irish II. But my distillery is in Canada and that is what the local people call frugal people, scottish. They call people from Scotland -Scots. 

Jack: Before this conversation gets off the rails, does anybody know how these contracts work out.

Hiram: I was looking at the 10 players that signed contracts before this season that will be paid more than 10 million dollars for season 56. Of the 10 only 4 made an all star team after signing the big contract.

Jack: Who got the biggest contract?

Hiram: Aurelio Wong signed a 5yr 91million dollar contract prior to season 55. A two time all star, one time silver slugger with 4 world series rings. In the first year of the contract he hit .283 with 53 homers and slugged .604.

Johnny: He was beaten out for the all star game by Enrique Gamboa who hit .305 with 45 homers and slugged .614.

Hiram: Don't go all scottish on me. He was paid 9.25 million for the year; he still got paid a lot of money.

Johnny: About half of Wong's money.

Jack: Point taken

Hiram: The most accomplished player with a big contract is Rey Jung. Jung is a three time MVP, Rookie of the year. Twice he was the All Star game MVP out of his ten all star appearances. He signed for 62 million over 4 years. He did make the all star game after signing for big bucks.

Elijah: Are you telling me that it paying a lot of money doesn't guarantee success.

Jack: It is no worse than injuries. Just part of the game.

Johnny: That doesn't explain the relief pitchers in Ottawa.

Hiram: Somebody is joining to claim them.

Elijah: Next time fellas we will know who are the free agents signing with new clubs. the uber just pulled up.