An Update on HOF Calculations/Metrics

 As I mentioned at the end of my previous blog post about the HOF, I am in the middle of calculating park adjusted Wins Above Replacement totals for a number of the leading candidates because I find that makes comparing careers faster and easier (once the numbers are crunched.) This past season I used the following scale as my initial judge of HOF worthiness: 100+ WAR = Slam Dunk HOF Candidate, 70-99 WAR = Definitely HOF Worthy, 50-69 WAR = Strong HOF Case and 49 or fewer WAR is a Weak HOF Case.  

However, I am going to make a couple of tweaks to that particular system going forward: first of all, I am going to add a category at the bottom ("No HOF Case At All") so that I might save myself some time in the future and only make deep dives on guys with a legitimate chance at the HOF. The other change that I'm going to make is that I'm going to start using a metric that MLB.com made up to rate the best free agent signings of all time...in the article they published where they introduce it they call it "a junk stat" that is "hastily thrown together and somewhat arbitrary" but I like it a lot. The reason I like it a lot is that it combines the two aspects of professional sports that are usually debated as being the most important into one metric: winning titles & individual performances (aka stat-stuffing.) 

In case you didn't click the link above and read what they wrote, here's how they combine those two aspects rather quickly and efficiently: The "Baseline Score" is a player's average WAR/year and then they get bonus points for World Series Rings, Pennants won, Cy Youngs, MVPs and each year they produced at an "All Star Level" (which they define as 4+ WAR.) 

The last piece of the puzzle is turning my previous scale into a scale that makes more sense with this metric. Since my previous scale was based on MLB totals, and MLB players have to play at least 10 seasons to be HOF eligible, this is where my mind goes right off the bat, as it were: 

100 WAR over 10 seasons = 10.0 WAR/year = Slam Dunk HOF Candidate

70 WAR over 10 seasons = 7.0 WAR/year = Definitely HOF Worthy

50 WAR over 10 seasons = 5.0 WAR/year = Strong HOF Case

and this is where the new category comes in:

30 WAR over 10 seasons = 3.0 WAR/year = Weak HOF Case

29 or fewer WAR over 10 seasons = 2.9 WAR/year or less = No HOF Case At All

So my thought is that starting next season, I'll look at players who averaged 3.0 WAR/year or better and see where their various awards get them on the scale presented in italics above. 

Meet Your Hall of Famers: Carl Harvey

 

Bio:   Carl Harvey was born in Winona Lake, IN (Pop. 4,908, 50 miles South of South Bend, IN).  He attended James Whitcomb Riley High School (Nickname: Wildcats) where he was a 2-sport athlete (Football and Baseball).  At Riley, Carl led the football team to back-to-back playoff appearances as QB.  He was also a 2-time baseball All-State pitcher and holds the AAAA (biggest classification) State Tournament record of 16 k’s in a playoff game (7 inning game).

Draft: Was the 2^nd pick in Season 26 by New York (brentcnb).  

Scout Paul McKnight- “Carl has a live arm.  He tops out at 96 mph with his Split FB toping out at 88.  His mechanics can be cleaned up to help with control and add more velocity.”

Career: Harvey was drafted in Season 26 by New York and broke into the Majors in Season 30.  During his career he played for New York/Indianapolis, Pittsburg, and Huntington/San Antonio.  During his time, he was a 6-time All-Star and won a Gold Glove Award (32). His best season was Season 38 when he won 15 games, had a .198 OAV, 1.00 WHIP, and 2.37 ERA, while striking out 221.  Over his Career he accumulated stats of 183 Wins, 2804.2 Innings, 2684 K’s, .234 OVA, 1.21 Whip and 3.20 ERA. 

Speech Highlight- “Ever since I started playing baseball, I knew it was all I wanted to do.  I was blessed with ability to be able to do it.  This award is for all those that took a chance on me.”

WHAT DO YOU VALUE AS AN OWNER?

by Mr_Stickball

We all value different things in our teams, but one thing I have always put value in is NP/PA (number of pitches seen per plate appearance).  On the other side of the ball, I at least try to put emphasis on strong defense up the middle.  The main idea here is to attempt to put stress on your opponent's Starter by stretching out each out as much as possible, while lessoning stress on your own Starter by gaining some extra outs with good defense.

In Season 23, Ripken0713's  San Antonio Papaya (Today's San Antonio Rustlers) attained Stickball World's Best NP/PA of 3.76.  AND they were very strong up the middle.

That Papaya team, which won 102 games and the WS Title, had some real stars on it's roster.  Anchoring the lineup were two future HOF'ers: 

1. Playing Left Field, the truly amazing Will Stevenson (.302|.391|.570, with 42 HRs and 110 RBIs); and, 
2. Catcher/DH, Bruce Sandberg (.296|.360|.587), with 39 HRs, 97 RBIs, and a career high ERA Against of only 3.42.  He happened to make the All Star Team and win the Home Run Derby that season as icing on the cake.

Adding to that duo, although not HOF Inductees, the S23 Papaya offense featured some other incredible All-Star talent:

• Playing a flawless 1B, Miguel Andujar hit (.292|.385|.588) with 43 HRs and 113 RBIs and made the All-Star team;
• Playing Center Field, Harry Sanchez, who was nearing the end of his amazing Gold Glove laden career, managed to hit (.271|.337|.406) and although declining, fielded well; 
• Despite his weak bat -- which makes the team NP/PA record even more impressive -- playing a quite rangy (RF 5.33) Shortstop and truly shoring up the defense was the then quite young Philip Jackson.  Jackson managed to win a Gold Glove that season; and, 
• Shoring up the middle infield defense at Second Base was a platoon of veteran Alton Howard (3 time All Star who, while declining, still managed a RF of 4.81) and then rookie, Hack Brown (who played a decent 2B despite his inexperience, and managed to draw a lot of walks with his good batting eye).  Considering Brown played a defensive position, he finished that season with a NP/PA of a not-too-shabby 3.71.

And that combination of a high NP/PA (which tires out the opponent's starter) and strong defense up the middle, with some very good pitching to be fair, led to one of the more impressive teams in the World's History.

It's worth noting that in Season 26 Ripkin won another WS title with a similar formula. He still had Bruce Sandberg (C), Miguel Andujar (1B), and for half of the season had the then-aging Will Stevenson (LF), but by then Phillip Jackson  (SS) was an All-Star as well as a GG winner, and Ripken had managed to actually improve at CF with the Silver Slugger and All-Star, Morgan Venafro. 

In all, we lost a great owner when Ripken hung it up, but I think his formula for success was quite sound.  

As of this posting, Redsox666666's Chicago Charge is on pace to tie the World record, with Mr_Stickball's Colorado Stickballers nipping at the record with a close-but-no-cigar NP/PA of 3.75.  Can either of these squads dethrone Ripken's S23 SA Papaya?  And do these metrics really matter very much in your opinion?  What do you value most as a GM/Manager?